# Aspen Highlands snow forecast, 14-day multi-model blend

Canonical page: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/aspen-highlands/snow-forecast  ·  Resort: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/aspen-highlands  ·  JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/aspen-highlands/forecast  ·  Accuracy JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/aspen-highlands/forecast-accuracy

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

## Blend at the summit

Issued 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 1.9 in · 7 days 2 in · 14 days 6.3 in · peak 1.9 in on 2026-11-04

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 1.9 in | 0.8 in – 3.9 in | 34° / 17° | 95 | 19 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.5 in | 33° / 14° | 35 | 12 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0.1 in | 0 in – 0.2 in | 31° / 14° | 20 | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 35° / 11° | 1 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 38° / 15° | 0 | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 40° / 18° | 1 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 36° / 21° | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 38° / 19° | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 31° / 17° | 12 | 14 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0.2 in | 0 in – 0.6 in | 31° / 17° | 17 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-11-14 | 1 in | 0.7 in – 1.2 in | 29° / 16° | 23 | 13 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0.7 in | 0.4 in – 1.1 in | 33° / 14° | 33 | 23 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 1.6 in | 1.1 in – 2 in | 18° / 2° | 46 | 17 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 0.7 in | 0.6 in – 0.8 in | 20° / 1° | 39 | 12 | 2 |

## Blend at the base

Issued 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 0 in · 7 days 0 in · 14 days 2.3 in · peak 1.2 in on 2026-11-16

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 in | 0 in – 4.2 in | 49° / 29° | 93 | 18 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 48° / 28° | 34 | 11 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 47° / 30° | 18 | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 49° / 28° | 1 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 52° / 30° | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 55° / 33° | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 52° / 32° | 2 | 11 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 49° / 34° | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 47° / 32° | 12 | 12 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.2 in | 47° / 33° | 17 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-11-14 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.2 in | 44° / 32° | 23 | 13 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0.5 in | 0.2 in – 0.7 in | 49° / 29° | 33 | 23 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 1.2 in | 0.6 in – 1.8 in | 34° / 18° | 46 | 17 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 0.6 in | 0.5 in – 0.7 in | 36° / 17° | 39 | 12 | 2 |

## Every model, summit point

| Model | Issued | Horizon | 11-04 | 11-05 | 11-06 | 11-07 | 11-08 | 11-09 | 11-10 | 11-11 | 11-12 | 11-13 | 11-14 | 11-15 | 11-16 | 11-17 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 1.5 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 |
| GEM | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 9 d | 13.7 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – |
| HRRR | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 2 d | 9.9 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GFS | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 9.9 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| ICON | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 7 d | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JMA | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 2 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | – | – | – |
| ARPEGE/AROME | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 4 d | 3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NBM (CONUS) | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 18.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | – | – | – |
| UKMO | 6:00 AM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 6 d | 4.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |

Per-model values are snowfall in cm per day as the provider stores them; a dash means the model does not reach that day.

## How the models have verified here (90 days)

Truth: 24 h depth change at Nast Lake; 15 measured days; graded at the base point.

| Rank | Model | Day-1 MAE cm | Day-3 MAE cm | Day-7 MAE cm | Bias ratio | Samples |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | JMA | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 14 |
| 2 | GEM | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | – | 14 |
| 3 | PeakCam blend | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | – | 14 |
| 4 | ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | – | 14 |
| 5 | ICON | 0 | 0 | – | – | 14 |
| 6 | ARPEGE/AROME | 0 | 0 | – | – | 14 |
| 7 | UKMO | 0 | 0 | – | – | 14 |
| 8 | NBM (CONUS) | 0.24 | 0.35 | 0.78 | – | 14 |
| 9 | GFS | 0.54 | 0 | 0.35 | – | 14 |
| 10 | HRRR | 0.54 | – | – | – | 14 |

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0, https://open-meteo.com). Methodology: https://www.peakcam.io/methodology#forecast  ·  Attribution: PeakCam (https://www.peakcam.io)  ·  Terms: https://www.peakcam.io/about#terms