# Buttermilk snow forecast, 14-day multi-model blend

Canonical page: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/buttermilk/snow-forecast  ·  Resort: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/buttermilk  ·  JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/buttermilk/forecast  ·  Accuracy JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/buttermilk/forecast-accuracy

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

## Blend at the base

Issued 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 0 in · 7 days 0 in · 14 days 2.2 in · peak 1.2 in on 2026-11-16

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 in | 0 in – 3.3 in | 49° / 28° | 86 | 16 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 47° / 27° | 26 | 10 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 46° / 30° | 21 | 13 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 48° / 28° | 0 | 11 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 52° / 29° | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 55° / 33° | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 52° / 32° | 1 | 10 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 50° / 33° | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 47° / 33° | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 50° / 32° | 12 | 16 | 5 |
| 2026-11-14 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.3 in | 48° / 33° | 33 | 15 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0.5 in | 0.2 in – 0.7 in | 53° / 32° | 33 | 20 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 1.2 in | 0.6 in – 1.8 in | 42° / 23° | 43 | 18 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 0.5 in | 0.3 in – 0.7 in | 35° / 15° | 46 | 14 | 2 |

## Every model, base point

| Model | Issued | Horizon | 11-04 | 11-05 | 11-06 | 11-07 | 11-08 | 11-09 | 11-10 | 11-11 | 11-12 | 11-13 | 11-14 | 11-15 | 11-16 | 11-17 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 |
| GEM | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 10 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| HRRR | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 2 d | 14.7 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GFS | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 14.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| ICON | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 7 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JMA | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – |
| ARPEGE/AROME | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 4 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NBM (CONUS) | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 8.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 | – | – | – |
| UKMO | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 6 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |

Per-model values are snowfall in cm per day as the provider stores them; a dash means the model does not reach that day.

## How the models have verified here (90 days)

Truth: 24 h depth change at Nast Lake; 15 measured days; graded at the base point.

| Rank | Model | Day-1 MAE cm | Day-3 MAE cm | Day-7 MAE cm | Bias ratio | Samples |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | JMA | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 14 |
| 2 | GEM | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | – | 14 |
| 3 | PeakCam blend | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | – | 14 |
| 4 | ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0 | 0 | 0.4 | – | 14 |
| 5 | ICON | 0 | 0 | – | – | 14 |
| 6 | ARPEGE/AROME | 0 | 0 | – | – | 14 |
| 7 | UKMO | 0 | 0 | – | – | 14 |
| 8 | NBM (CONUS) | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.7 | – | 14 |
| 9 | GFS | 0.44 | 0 | 0.32 | – | 14 |
| 10 | HRRR | 0.44 | – | – | – | 14 |

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0, https://open-meteo.com). Methodology: https://www.peakcam.io/methodology#forecast  ·  Attribution: PeakCam (https://www.peakcam.io)  ·  Terms: https://www.peakcam.io/about#terms