# Pajarito Mountain Ski Area snow forecast, 14-day multi-model blend

Canonical page: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/pajarito/snow-forecast  ·  Resort: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/pajarito  ·  JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/pajarito/forecast  ·  Accuracy JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/pajarito/forecast-accuracy

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

## Blend at the summit

Issued 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 0 in · 7 days 0 in · 14 days 1.1 in · peak 0.6 in on 2026-11-16

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 42° / 25° | 2 | 31 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 40° / 24° | 0 | 26 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 40° / 25° | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 41° / 24° | 9 | 16 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 44° / 24° | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 49° / 26° | 0 | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 47° / 28° | 1 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 46° / 26° | 3 | 8 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.1 in | 44° / 26° | 11 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.3 in | 40° / 24° | 16 | 17 | 5 |
| 2026-11-14 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.3 in | 41° / 26° | 23 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0.2 in | 0.1 in – 0.3 in | 44° / 27° | 22 | 25 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 0.6 in | 0.5 in – 0.7 in | 34° / 21° | 23 | 42 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 0.3 in | 0.2 in – 0.4 in | 31° / 16° | 26 | 34 | 2 |

## Blend at the base

Issued 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 0 in · 7 days 0 in · 14 days 0.7 in · peak 0.4 in on 2026-11-16

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 48° / 31° | 4 | 33 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 45° / 29° | 0 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 45° / 30° | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 46° / 29° | 9 | 16 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 49° / 30° | 0 | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 54° / 32° | 0 | 13 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 52° / 34° | 1 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 51° / 31° | 3 | 9 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 49° / 31° | 11 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 45° / 29° | 16 | 18 | 5 |
| 2026-11-14 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.2 in | 46° / 31° | 23 | 14 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 49° / 32° | 22 | 25 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 0.4 in | 0.4 in – 0.4 in | 39° / 26° | 23 | 42 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 0.3 in | 0.2 in – 0.4 in | 37° / 21° | 26 | 34 | 2 |

## Every model, summit point

| Model | Issued | Horizon | 11-04 | 11-05 | 11-06 | 11-07 | 11-08 | 11-09 | 11-10 | 11-11 | 11-12 | 11-13 | 11-14 | 11-15 | 11-16 | 11-17 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| GEM | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 10 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| HRRR | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 2 d | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GFS | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| ICON | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 7 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JMA | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 | – | – | – |
| ARPEGE/AROME | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 4 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NBM (CONUS) | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.3 | – | – | – |
| UKMO | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 6 d | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |

Per-model values are snowfall in cm per day as the provider stores them; a dash means the model does not reach that day.

## How the models have verified here (90 days)

Truth: 24 h depth change at Quemazon; 85 measured days; graded at the base point.

| Rank | Model | Day-1 MAE cm | Day-3 MAE cm | Day-7 MAE cm | Bias ratio | Samples |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | PeakCam blend | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.64 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | GEM | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.64 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | JMA | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.64 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | NBM (CONUS) | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.64 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.74 | 0.02 | 10 |
| 6 | ICON | 1.02 | 0.95 | – | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | ARPEGE/AROME | 1.02 | 0.95 | – | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | UKMO | 1.02 | 0.95 | – | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | GFS | 1.02 | 1.01 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 10 |
| 10 | HRRR | 1.02 | – | – | 0.01 | 10 |

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0, https://open-meteo.com). Methodology: https://www.peakcam.io/methodology#forecast  ·  Attribution: PeakCam (https://www.peakcam.io)  ·  Terms: https://www.peakcam.io/about#terms