# Silverton Mountain snow forecast, 14-day multi-model blend

Canonical page: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/silverton/snow-forecast  ·  Resort: https://www.peakcam.io/resorts/silverton  ·  JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/silverton/forecast  ·  Accuracy JSON: https://www.peakcam.io/api/v1/resorts/silverton/forecast-accuracy

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

## Blend at the summit

Issued 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 0.7 in · 7 days 0.8 in · 14 days 5.7 in · peak 2.1 in on 2026-11-16

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 0.7 in | 0.2 in – 0.8 in | 25° / 8° | 100 | 22 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 28° / 7° | 6 | 16 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0.2 in | 0 in – 0.3 in | 26° / 10° | 27 | 13 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 31° / 9° | 1 | 13 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 32° / 12° | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 36° / 15° | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 32° / 15° | 2 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 30° / 11° | 6 | 9 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.1 in | 31° / 10° | 13 | 13 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0.5 in | 0 in – 1.5 in | 27° / 12° | 15 | 21 | 5 |
| 2026-11-14 | 0.1 in | 0.1 in – 0.9 in | 24° / 11° | 32 | 14 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0.5 in | 0.2 in – 0.7 in | 26° / 11° | 32 | 35 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 2.1 in | 1.7 in – 2.4 in | 19° / -4° | 43 | 33 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 1.7 in | 1.2 in – 2.1 in | 15° / -8° | 44 | 23 | 2 |

## Blend at the base

Issued 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 · 9 models (ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO) · next 48 h 0.4 in · 7 days 0.4 in · 14 days 5.3 in · peak 2.1 in on 2026-11-16

| Date | Snow (median) | Low – high (p25–p75) | High / low °F | Precip % | Gust mph | Models |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-11-04 | 0.4 in | 0.1 in – 0.7 in | 36° / 19° | 98 | 21 | 9 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 39° / 18° | 3 | 15 | 9 |
| 2026-11-06 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.2 in | 37° / 21° | 31 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-11-07 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 42° / 19° | 1 | 12 | 8 |
| 2026-11-08 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 45° / 23° | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 2026-11-09 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 47° / 26° | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-11-10 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 43° / 26° | 1 | 9 | 6 |
| 2026-11-11 | 0 in | 0 in – 0 in | 42° / 22° | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 2026-11-12 | 0 in | 0 in – 0.1 in | 42° / 20° | 13 | 12 | 5 |
| 2026-11-13 | 0.5 in | 0 in – 1.5 in | 38° / 23° | 15 | 20 | 5 |
| 2026-11-14 | 0.1 in | 0.1 in – 0.9 in | 37° / 22° | 32 | 12 | 4 |
| 2026-11-15 | 0.5 in | 0.2 in – 0.7 in | 37° / 22° | 32 | 35 | 2 |
| 2026-11-16 | 2.1 in | 1.7 in – 2.4 in | 30° / 7° | 43 | 33 | 2 |
| 2026-11-17 | 1.7 in | 1.2 in – 2.1 in | 26° / 3° | 44 | 23 | 2 |

## Every model, summit point

| Model | Issued | Horizon | 11-04 | 11-05 | 11-06 | 11-07 | 11-08 | 11-09 | 11-10 | 11-11 | 11-12 | 11-13 | 11-14 | 11-15 | 11-16 | 11-17 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 3.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.8 |
| GEM | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 10 d | 2.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – |
| HRRR | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 2 d | 0.6 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| GFS | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 14 d | 0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 6.5 |
| ICON | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 7 d | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| JMA | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 0.4 | – | – | – |
| ARPEGE/AROME | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 4 d | 2 | 0 | 6.7 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NBM (CONUS) | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 11 d | 1.7 | 0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 8.6 | – | – | – |
| UKMO | 12:00 PM MT on Nov 4, 2026 | 6 d | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |

Per-model values are snowfall in cm per day as the provider stores them; a dash means the model does not reach that day.

## How the models have verified here (90 days)

Truth: 24 h depth change at Red Mountain Pass; 89 measured days; graded at the base point.

| Rank | Model | Day-1 MAE cm | Day-3 MAE cm | Day-7 MAE cm | Bias ratio | Samples |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | NBM (CONUS) | 3.27 | 3.7 | 4.54 | 0.6 | 14 |
| 2 | ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 3.77 | 3.92 | 4.92 | 0.47 | 14 |
| 3 | UKMO | 5.06 | 5.8 | – | 0.14 | 14 |
| 4 | GFS | 5.4 | 5.36 | 6.56 | 0.15 | 14 |
| 5 | HRRR | 5.4 | – | – | 0.13 | 14 |
| 6 | ICON | 5.49 | 5.77 | – | 0.1 | 14 |
| 7 | PeakCam blend | 5.61 | 5.7 | 5.76 | 0.14 | 14 |
| 8 | JMA | 5.76 | 5.69 | 5.51 | 0.11 | 14 |
| 9 | GEM | 5.99 | 6.79 | 6.29 | 0.1 | 14 |
| 10 | ARPEGE/AROME | 6.15 | 5.83 | – | 0.04 | 14 |

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0, https://open-meteo.com). Methodology: https://www.peakcam.io/methodology#forecast  ·  Attribution: PeakCam (https://www.peakcam.io)  ·  Terms: https://www.peakcam.io/about#terms