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PeakCam

14-day multi-model blend · 9 models

Buttermilk snow forecast

As of the 2026-11-04 runs: 0″ in the next 7 days and 2.2″ over 14 at the base, the biggest day 1.2″, the median of 9 models.

Elk Mountains · Colorado

Base blend, next 14 days

Base point · issued · 9 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO.

Next 48 h
0″
Next 7 days
0″
Next 14 days
2.2″
Biggest day
1.2″ on Mon, Nov 16
DaySkySnow (median)Low – highHigh / lowPrecipGustModels
✳✳✳✳✳✳–0″ – 3.3″49° / 28°86%16 mph9
––47° / 27°26%10 mph9
––46° / 30°21%13 mph8
––48° / 28°0%11 mph8
––52° / 29°0%11 mph7
––55° / 33°0%10 mph7
––52° / 32°1%10 mph6
––50° / 33°5%9 mph5
––47° / 33°7%7 mph5
––50° / 32°12%16 mph5
✳✳✳–0″ – 0.3″48° / 33°33%15 mph4
✳✳✳0.5″0.2″ – 0.7″53° / 32°33%20 mph2
✳✳✳1.2″0.6″ – 1.8″42° / 23°43%18 mph2
0.5″0.3″ – 0.7″35° / 15°46%14 mph2
Every model at the base (9 runs) — snowfall in inches per day
ModelIssuedHorizon11-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1211-1311-1411-1511-1611-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF14 d0000000000012.40.9
GEMEnvironment Canada10 d0000000000––––
HRRRNOAA NCEP2 d5.80––––––––––––
GFSNOAA NCEP14 d5.80000000000000.1
ICONDWD7 d0000000–––––––
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency11 d00000000000–––
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France4 d0000––––––––––
NBM (CONUS)NOAA NCEP11 d3.30.10.1000000.20.21.3–––
UKMOUK Met Office6 d000000––––––––

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

How the models have verified here

Truth: 24 h depth change at Nast Lake (8,710 ft) · 15 measured days in the last 90 · graded at the base point · scored .

#ModelDay-1 MAEDay-3 MAEDay-7 MAEBiasSamples
1JMA0 cm0 cm0 cm–14
2GEM0 cm0 cm0 cm–14
3PeakCam blend0 cm0 cm0.1 cm–14
4ECMWF IFS 0.25°0 cm0 cm0.4 cm–14
5ICON0 cm0 cm– cm–14
6ARPEGE/AROME0 cm0 cm– cm–14
7UKMO0 cm0 cm– cm–14
8NBM (CONUS)0.1 cm0.2 cm0.7 cm–14
9GFS0.4 cm0 cm0.3 cm–14
10HRRR0.4 cm– cm– cm–14

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

How to read this page

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

The verification table grades each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days before each measured day against the station's 24 h depth change; a lower mean absolute error is better and a bias above 1 means the model forecast more snow than fell. How the blend is built and verified.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Updated every 6 hours.