Summit blend, next 14 days

Summit point at 5,210 ft · issued 12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4 · 7 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, UKMO.

Next 48 h: 0″
Next 7 days: 1.6″
Next 14 days: 8.2″
Biggest day: 2.4″ on Tue, Nov 17

Day	Snow (median)	Low – high	High / low	Precip	Gust	Models
Today	–	–	34° / 26°	100%	27 mph	7
Thu, Nov 5	–	–	33° / 24°	100%	27 mph	7
Fri, Nov 6	–	0″ – 1″	40° / 28°	100%	36 mph	7
Sat, Nov 7	–	–	40° / 31°	100%	42 mph	7
Sun, Nov 8	0.1″	0″ – 0.8″	35° / 24°	93%	37 mph	6
Mon, Nov 9	–	–	31° / 24°	87%	27 mph	6
Tue, Nov 10	1.5″	0″ – 1.5″	37° / 29°	95%	25 mph	5
Wed, Nov 11	–	–	35° / 30°	91%	14 mph	4
Thu, Nov 12	–	0″ – 0.7″	33° / 26°	80%	23 mph	4
Fri, Nov 13	1.9″	0.1″ – 4.1″	30° / 25°	87%	25 mph	4
Sat, Nov 14	–	0″ – 2.1″	32° / 27°	77%	32 mph	3
Sun, Nov 15	0.6″	0.3″ – 0.9″	30° / 26°	66%	13 mph	2
Mon, Nov 16	1.7″	0.9″ – 2.6″	29° / 25°	62%	24 mph	2
Tue, Nov 17	2.4″	1.2″ – 3.7″	31° / 23°	54%	21 mph	2

Every model at the summit (7 runs) — snowfall in inches per day

Model	Issued	Horizon	11-04	11-05	11-06	11-07	11-08	11-09	11-10	11-11	11-12	11-13	11-14	11-15	11-16	11-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	14 d	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.5	0	0	5.6	0	1.2	3.4	4.9
GEMEnvironment Canada	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	10 d	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–	–	–	–
GFSNOAA NCEP	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	14 d	0	0	1.9	0	0.2	0	1.5	0	0	0.1	0	0	0	0
ICONDWD	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	7 d	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	11 d	0	3.3	4.1	0.7	5.8	0	4.2	0	2.8	3.6	4.2	–	–	–
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	4 d	0	0	0	0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
UKMOUK Met Office	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	6 d	1.9	0	0	0	1	0.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

Base blend, next 14 days

Base point at 3,553 ft · issued 12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4 · 7 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, UKMO.

Next 48 h: 0″
Next 7 days: 0″
Next 14 days: 6.4″
Biggest day: 2.4″ on Tue, Nov 17

Day	Snow (median)	Low – high	High / low	Precip	Gust	Models
Today	–	–	40° / 32°	100%	27 mph	7
Thu, Nov 5	–	–	39° / 30°	100%	27 mph	7
Fri, Nov 6	–	0″ – 0.1″	46° / 34°	100%	36 mph	7
Sat, Nov 7	–	–	46° / 37°	100%	42 mph	7
Sun, Nov 8	–	–	41° / 30°	93%	37 mph	6
Mon, Nov 9	–	–	37° / 30°	87%	27 mph	6
Tue, Nov 10	–	–	43° / 35°	95%	25 mph	5
Wed, Nov 11	–	–	41° / 36°	91%	14 mph	4
Thu, Nov 12	–	–	39° / 32°	80%	23 mph	4
Fri, Nov 13	1.6″	0″ – 3.3″	36° / 31°	87%	25 mph	4
Sat, Nov 14	–	0″ – 1.4″	38° / 33°	77%	32 mph	3
Sun, Nov 15	0.6″	0.3″ – 0.9″	36° / 32°	66%	13 mph	2
Mon, Nov 16	1.7″	0.9″ – 2.6″	35° / 31°	62%	24 mph	2
Tue, Nov 17	2.4″	1.2″ – 3.7″	37° / 29°	54%	21 mph	2

Every model at the base (7 runs) — snowfall in inches per day

Model	Issued	Horizon	11-06	11-08	11-09	11-10	11-11	11-12	11-13	11-14	11-15	11-16	11-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	14 d	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.3	0	1.2	3.4	4.9
GEMEnvironment Canada	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	10 d	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	–	–	–	–
GFSNOAA NCEP	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	14 d	1.6	0	0	1.4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
ICONDWD	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	7 d	0	0	0	0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	11 d	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.6	2.8	–	–	–
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	4 d	0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
UKMOUK Met Office	12:00 p.m. MT Nov 4	6 d	0	0	0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

How the models have verified here

Truth: no measured series · 0 measured days in the last 90 · graded at the base point · scored 6:31 a.m. MT Nov 4.

#	Model	Day-1 MAE	Day-3 MAE	Day-7 MAE	Bias	Samples
1	ICON	0 cm	0 cm	– cm	–	1
2	ARPEGE/AROME	0 cm	0 cm	– cm	–	1
3	UKMO	0 cm	0 cm	– cm	–	1
4	PeakCam blend	0.3 cm	0.1 cm	– cm	–	1
5	GFS	0.3 cm	1.1 cm	– cm	–	1
6	ECMWF IFS 0.25°	5 cm	0.1 cm	– cm	–	1
7	JMA	5.3 cm	4.1 cm	– cm	–	1
8	GEM	7.6 cm	1.9 cm	– cm	–	1

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

How to read this page

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

The verification table grades each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days before each measured day against the station's 24 h depth change; a lower mean absolute error is better and a bias above 1 means the model forecast more snow than fell. How the blend is built and verified.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Updated every 6 hours.

Mount Washington Alpine Resort snow forecast

Summit blend, next 14 days

Base blend, next 14 days

How the models have verified here

How to read this page