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PeakCam

14-day multi-model blend · 9 models

Pajarito Mountain Ski Area snow forecast

As of the 2026-11-04 runs: 0″ in the next 7 days and 1.1″ over 14 at the summit, the biggest day 0.6″, the median of 9 models.

Jemez Mountains · New Mexico

Summit blend, next 14 days

Summit point at 10,440 ft · issued · 9 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO.

Next 48 h
0″
Next 7 days
0″
Next 14 days
1.1″
Biggest day
0.6″ on Mon, Nov 16
DaySkySnow (median)Low – highHigh / lowPrecipGustModels
––42° / 25°2%31 mph9
––40° / 24°0%26 mph9
––40° / 25°10%13 mph8
––41° / 24°9%16 mph8
––44° / 24°0%11 mph7
––49° / 26°0%12 mph7
––47° / 28°1%9 mph6
––46° / 26°3%8 mph5
–0″ – 0.1″44° / 26°11%15 mph5
✳✳✳–0″ – 0.3″40° / 24°16%17 mph5
✳✳✳–0″ – 0.3″41° / 26°23%11 mph4
✳✳✳0.2″0.1″ – 0.3″44° / 27°22%25 mph2
✳✳✳0.6″0.5″ – 0.7″34° / 21°23%42 mph2
✳✳✳0.3″0.2″ – 0.4″31° / 16°26%34 mph2
Every model at the summit (9 runs) — snowfall in inches per day
ModelIssuedHorizon11-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1211-1311-1411-1511-1611-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF14 d000000000000.40.80
GEMEnvironment Canada10 d0000000000––––
HRRRNOAA NCEP2 d00––––––––––––
GFSNOAA NCEP14 d000000000.90000.40.5
ICONDWD7 d0000000–––––––
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency11 d0000.1000000.30–––
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France4 d0000––––––––––
NBM (CONUS)NOAA NCEP11 d000000000.10.41.3–––
UKMOUK Met Office6 d000000––––––––

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

Base blend, next 14 days

Base point at 9,000 ft · issued · 9 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO.

Next 48 h
0″
Next 7 days
0″
Next 14 days
0.7″
Biggest day
0.4″ on Mon, Nov 16
DaySkySnow (median)Low – highHigh / lowPrecipGustModels
––48° / 31°4%33 mph9
––45° / 29°0%27 mph9
––45° / 30°10%14 mph8
––46° / 29°9%16 mph8
––49° / 30°0%12 mph7
––54° / 32°0%13 mph7
––52° / 34°1%9 mph6
––51° / 31°3%9 mph5
––49° / 31°11%15 mph5
✳✳✳––45° / 29°16%18 mph5
✳✳✳–0″ – 0.2″46° / 31°23%14 mph4
––49° / 32°22%25 mph2
✳✳✳0.4″0.4″ – 0.4″39° / 26°23%42 mph2
✳✳✳0.3″0.2″ – 0.4″37° / 21°26%34 mph2
Every model at the base (9 runs) — snowfall in inches per day
ModelIssuedHorizon11-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1211-1311-1411-1511-1611-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF14 d0000000000000.40
GEMEnvironment Canada10 d0000000000––––
HRRRNOAA NCEP2 d00––––––––––––
GFSNOAA NCEP14 d000000000.90000.40.5
ICONDWD7 d0000000–––––––
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency11 d00000000000–––
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France4 d0000––––––––––
NBM (CONUS)NOAA NCEP11 d0000000000.11–––
UKMOUK Met Office6 d000000––––––––

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

How the models have verified here

Truth: 24 h depth change at Quemazon (9,500 ft) · 85 measured days in the last 90 · graded at the base point · scored .

#ModelDay-1 MAEDay-3 MAEDay-7 MAEBiasSamples
1PeakCam blend1 cm1 cm0.6 cm0×10
2GEM1 cm1 cm0.6 cm0×10
3JMA1 cm1 cm0.6 cm0×10
4NBM (CONUS)1 cm1 cm0.6 cm0×10
5ECMWF IFS 0.25°1 cm1 cm0.7 cm0.02×10
6ICON1 cm1 cm– cm0×10
7ARPEGE/AROME1 cm1 cm– cm0×10
8UKMO1 cm1 cm– cm0×10
9GFS1 cm1 cm0.6 cm0.02×10
10HRRR1 cm– cm– cm0.01×10

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

How to read this page

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

The verification table grades each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days before each measured day against the station's 24 h depth change; a lower mean absolute error is better and a bias above 1 means the model forecast more snow than fell. How the blend is built and verified.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Updated every 6 hours.