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14-day multi-model blend · 9 models

Silverton Mountain snow forecast

As of the 2026-11-04 runs: 0.8″ in the next 7 days and 5.7″ over 14 at the summit, the biggest day 2.1″, the median of 9 models.

San Juan Mountains · Colorado

Summit blend, next 14 days

Summit point at 13,487 ft · issued · 9 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO.

Next 48 h
0.7″
Next 7 days
0.8″
Next 14 days
5.7″
Biggest day
2.1″ on Mon, Nov 16
DaySkySnow (median)Low – highHigh / lowPrecipGustModels
✳✳✳0.7″0.2″ – 0.8″25° / 8°100%22 mph9
––28° / 7°6%16 mph9
✳✳✳0.2″0″ – 0.3″26° / 10°27%13 mph8
––31° / 9°1%13 mph8
––32° / 12°0%10 mph7
––36° / 15°0%8 mph7
––32° / 15°2%9 mph6
✳✳✳––30° / 11°6%9 mph5
–0″ – 0.1″31° / 10°13%13 mph5
✳✳✳0.5″0″ – 1.5″27° / 12°15%21 mph5
✳✳✳0.1″0.1″ – 0.9″24° / 11°32%14 mph4
✳✳✳0.5″0.2″ – 0.7″26° / 11°32%35 mph2
✳✳✳✳✳✳2.1″1.7″ – 2.4″19° / -4°43%33 mph2
✳✳✳✳✳✳1.7″1.2″ – 2.1″15° / -8°44%23 mph2
Every model at the summit (9 runs) — snowfall in inches per day
ModelIssuedHorizon11-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1211-1311-1411-1511-1611-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF14 d1.40.100000000.50.112.80.7
GEMEnvironment Canada10 d0.800.10000000––––
HRRRNOAA NCEP2 d0.20––––––––––––
GFSNOAA NCEP14 d0.200.3000000.10001.42.6
ICONDWD7 d0.1000000–––––––
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency11 d10.60.20.2000001.50.1–––
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France4 d0.802.60––––––––––
NBM (CONUS)NOAA NCEP11 d0.700.30000.10.20.71.83.4–––
UKMOUK Met Office6 d0.400000––––––––

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

Base blend, next 14 days

Base point at 10,400 ft · issued · 9 models: ECMWF IFS 0.25°, GEM, HRRR, GFS, ICON, JMA, ARPEGE/AROME, NBM (CONUS), UKMO.

Next 48 h
0.4″
Next 7 days
0.4″
Next 14 days
5.3″
Biggest day
2.1″ on Mon, Nov 16
DaySkySnow (median)Low – highHigh / lowPrecipGustModels
✳✳✳0.4″0.1″ – 0.7″36° / 19°98%21 mph9
––39° / 18°3%15 mph9
✳✳✳–0″ – 0.2″37° / 21°31%12 mph8
––42° / 19°1%12 mph8
––45° / 23°0%10 mph7
––47° / 26°0%7 mph7
––43° / 26°1%9 mph6
✳✳✳––42° / 22°6%8 mph5
–0″ – 0.1″42° / 20°13%12 mph5
✳✳✳0.5″0″ – 1.5″38° / 23°15%20 mph5
✳✳✳0.1″0.1″ – 0.9″37° / 22°32%12 mph4
✳✳✳0.5″0.2″ – 0.7″37° / 22°32%35 mph2
✳✳✳✳✳✳2.1″1.7″ – 2.4″30° / 7°43%33 mph2
✳✳✳✳✳✳1.7″1.2″ – 2.1″26° / 3°44%23 mph2
Every model at the base (9 runs) — snowfall in inches per day
ModelIssuedHorizon11-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1211-1311-1411-1511-1611-17
ECMWF IFS 0.25°ECMWF14 d1.40.100000000.50.112.80.7
GEMEnvironment Canada10 d0.700.10000000––––
HRRRNOAA NCEP2 d0.10––––––––––––
GFSNOAA NCEP14 d0.100.3000000.10001.42.6
ICONDWD7 d0.1000000–––––––
JMAJapan Meteorological Agency11 d10.60.20.2000001.50.1–––
ARPEGE/AROMEMétéo-France4 d0.2000––––––––––
NBM (CONUS)NOAA NCEP11 d0.400.30000.10.20.71.63.2–––
UKMOUK Met Office6 d0.400000––––––––

A dash means the model does not reach that day. Runs are the newest per model within 36 hours.

How the models have verified here

Truth: 24 h depth change at Red Mountain Pass (11,060 ft) · 89 measured days in the last 90 · graded at the base point · scored .

#ModelDay-1 MAEDay-3 MAEDay-7 MAEBiasSamples
1NBM (CONUS)3.3 cm3.7 cm4.5 cm0.6×14
2ECMWF IFS 0.25°3.8 cm3.9 cm4.9 cm0.47×14
3UKMO5.1 cm5.8 cm– cm0.14×14
4GFS5.4 cm5.4 cm6.6 cm0.15×14
5HRRR5.4 cm– cm– cm0.13×14
6ICON5.5 cm5.8 cm– cm0.1×14
7PeakCam blend5.6 cm5.7 cm5.8 cm0.14×14
8JMA5.8 cm5.7 cm5.5 cm0.11×14
9GEM6 cm6.8 cm6.3 cm0.1×14
10ARPEGE/AROME6.2 cm5.8 cm– cm0.04×14

For every day in the window with a measured value, the forecast for that day from each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days earlier is compared with the measured 24 h new snow (SNOTEL depth change clipped at zero, so settlement makes the measured value a floor). MAE is in cm; bias ratio is total forecast over total measured; the blend is graded by the same rule.

How to read this page

Per day, the median snowfall across the models that reach that day (ECMWF IFS, GFS, GEM, ICON, JMA, Météo-France, UKMO, plus NBM and HRRR for US points), fetched every 6 hours from Open-Meteo at the resort's summit and base elevations; the low/high band is the 25th/75th percentile across models, so a wide band means the models disagree.

The verification table grades each model's newest run issued 1, 3 and 7 days before each measured day against the station's 24 h depth change; a lower mean absolute error is better and a bias above 1 means the model forecast more snow than fell. How the blend is built and verified.

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Updated every 6 hours.

Silverton Mountain Snow Forecast — 14-Day Multi-Model Blend | PeakCam